Russia–Ukraine: Between a Prolonged War and the Strategic Fatigue of the West

After more than three years of war, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered a phase of violent stalemate, with front lines remaining largely static but with a steady increase in the use of drones, cyberattacks, and sabotage against critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, in the West, internal political fractures are beginning to emerge over the cost of continuing indefinite military support for Kyiv.

This week, the Russian government announced tactical advances in the Donetsk region, accompanied by airstrikes on Ukrainian logistical centers. At the same time, unconfirmed reports suggest that Ukraine has intensified its attacks inside Russian territory, particularly in border regions — actions that Moscow has labeled as “NATO-sponsored terrorism.”

In the United States, financial support for Ukraine has become a politically polarizing issue ahead of the November presidential elections. While the executive branch insists on the need to maintain pressure on Russia, sectors of Congress — mainly Republicans — are calling for a reassessment of the strategy and a shift in focus toward domestic priorities. In Europe, public fatigue is beginning to translate into protests, particularly in Germany, France, and Italy, where energy inflation and the lack of visible results on the battlefield are fueling growing skepticism.

Meanwhile, China and other countries in the so-called “Global South” continue to play an ambiguous role. Although they officially advocate for peace, their commercial and diplomatic ties with Russia have deepened, challenging the Western-led international order. The Kremlin has begun to position itself as a pole of resistance against what it calls “Western hegemonism,” a narrative that is finding resonance in certain political spaces across the developing world.

Is the conflict heading toward a de facto freeze, akin to the situation between North and South Korea? Or are we facing a war that could reignite with greater intensity if political leadership changes in Washington or Brussels?

At Laboratorio360, we continue to monitor this conflict not only as a territorial dispute but as a reflection of a profound transformation in the global order. More than just a military front, what is at stake is the balance of power in the 21st century.