The increase in OPEC+ production threatens to destabilize the global oil market

The increase in oil production by the OPEC+ alliance is emerging as a risk factor for international energy markets, generating signals of imbalance and downward pressure on prices. According to sources close to the matter, during the meeting scheduled for Sunday, September 7, 2025, the group will evaluate the possibility of prematurely dismantling a third tranche of cuts, equivalent to 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd), ahead of the timeline originally planned for the end of 2026. So far, OPEC+ has already reversed around 2.5 million bpd, representing approximately 2.4% of global demand.

The mere announcement of this measure had an immediate impact on the markets: oil prices fell 2.2% for Brent and 2.4% for WTI, while energy companies such as APA, Occidental Petroleum, Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Phillips 66 saw significant declines in their stock prices. Stock markets in Gulf countries also reflected this nervousness: the Saudi index fell 0.5%, dragged down by the giant Aramco and key banks like Al Rajhi; other markets, such as Dubai, Qatar, and Egypt, also recorded losses, while Abu Dhabi showed a slight recovery.

Despite the downward pressure, crude prices remain relatively high around $70 per barrel, thanks to factors such as Western sanctions against Russia and Iran and strong seasonal demand, which has allowed OPEC+ to regain market share against competitors such as the United States. However, analysts warn that if this new increase is implemented, the market could face a substantial oversupply from September 2025 well into 2026, raising global inventories and heightening the risk of imbalance.

Some experts suggest that OPEC+ could opt for a more cautious strategy and maintain stable production to avoid excessive market saturation. The decision on September 7 will be crucial: the group will either take another step in its market share expansion strategy or pause increases to mitigate the risk of a price collapse.

In any case, the outcome will shape the direction of the global energy sector and will be closely watched by governments, investors, and consumers.