The New Geopolitical Map of the Middle East: A Board in Transformation

The Middle East is undergoing a major geopolitical reconfiguration following the collapse of the so-called Axis of Resistance, led by Iran and supported by Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis in Yemen. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Damascus, which had until now served as a key logistical hub for Tehran, has significantly weakened Iranian influence in the region and forced its allies to retreat. Hezbollah has reduced its presence in southern Lebanon, while Syria no longer functions as a strategic military corridor to the Mediterranean.

In parallel, Israel has consolidated an unprecedented role as a regional operational power. With simultaneous operations in Gaza, incursions into southern Lebanon, attacks on positions in Yemen, and direct actions in Syria, the Israeli state has established itself as a central actor, with no coordinated response from Arab countries so far. This rise, however, is accompanied by a firm refusal to accept the creation of a Palestinian state or to withdraw from occupied areas in Syria, as the Tel Aviv government has recently reiterated.

At the same time, new alliances and strategic corridors are emerging that are reshaping power dynamics. The Indo-Abrahamic Alliance (I2U2), composed of India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States, seeks to create a cooperative bloc in security and technology, while the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) projects a connectivity route linking Indian ports with Europe through Saudi Arabia and the UAE, positioning Israel as a key logistical hub.

Regional balances are also influenced by the ambitions of Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Ankara maintains a dual policy, with the capacity to mediate both with Russia and the West, while strengthening its position in northern Syria. Qatar has established itself as a key diplomatic mediator, while Riyadh, although seeking to preserve its leadership in the Arab world and contain Iranian influence, has slowed the full normalization of relations with Israel due to Israel’s refusal to recognize a Palestinian state.

Globally, the expansion of the BRICS with the inclusion of Iran, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates confirms the shift toward a multipolar scenario in which the Middle East gains increasing weight. Russia, for its part, strengthens its energy and military ties with Tehran, while Washington shifts part of its strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific, delegating greater responsibility to its regional allies.

In conclusion, the Middle East is experiencing a moment of strategic redefinition: the decline of the Axis of Resistance, Israel’s military prominence, and the emergence of new economic and political alliances are shaping a more dynamic and unstable multipolar board, in which each actor seeks to secure its space amid the fragmentation of the traditional regional order.